How Does Odds Tribe Work?
We compile odds for football matches using big data, mathematical models and algorithms to help our members make more well-informed betting decisions.
Our software works around the clock analysing thousands of data points, crunching the numbers and sharing our forecasts with the tribe.
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Probability Convergence To The Mean Over Time
Mean (aka expected value) = Most likely probability of
The most simple example to highlight this is a coin flip. The expected value in flipping a coin is
It’s essentially the same with sports betting, over time.
You could win any given bet at random BUT, if you placed a similar bet many times over at odds that don’t reflect the true chance of the event happening, then you would be expected to lose.
Identifying a Value Bet
1. Firstly we need to assign what we think is the most accurate probability for a particular event occuring.
2. Secondly we need to compare those to the implied probabilities offered by the bookmakers.
When the implied probability from the bookie is lower than our own expectation then we have a value bet.