How Does Odds Tribe Work?
We identify accurate probabilities for sports events using big data, mathematical models, algorithms and tech to help our members pinpoint good value selections.
Every day we analyse the odds so our members can get a good idea of where the value lies, at a glance. This is presented in our value finder as in the image on the left.
Our software is the result of a tonne of number crunching combined with some computer wizardry and the end result is a powerful system which can help you make more well-informed betting decisions.
Probability Convergence To The Mean Over Time
Mean (aka expected value) = Most likely probability of
The most simple example to highlight this is a coin flip. The expected value in flipping a coin is
It’s essentially the same with sports betting, over time.
You could win any given bet at random BUT, if you placed a similar bet many times over at odds that don’t reflect the true chance of the event happening, then you would be expected to lose.
Identifying a Value Bet
1. Firstly we need to assign what we think is the most accurate probability for a particular event occuring.
2. Secondly we need to compare those to the implied probabilities offered by the bookmakers.
When the implied probability from the bookie is lower than our own expectation then we have a value bet.