The new Premier League season gets underway at 8pm on Friday with Liverpool taking on Norwich. That’s all well and good but the real question is; how do we identify good value bets on the opening weekend when there are no results to go on?
It’s a tricky task, and looking at results of pre-season friendlies probably isn’t the best indicator but there are a couple of things we can do.
First of these (and the one most of us are probably keeping tabs on anyway) is to check how much change a club has been through.
If you’ve been monitoring the transfers then you’re probably well prepared on this front. ✔️
1️⃣ Has the side had a clear-out of players?
2️⃣ Have they signed too many players and will need some time for the team to gel?
3️⃣ Were the team solid last season and have just made a few quality additions
The second thing we can do is take a look back at the opening weekend last season.
Here are the standout stats that could help you in the pursuit of winners on match-day one this season..
83% of odds on favourites won their opening game
Of the 10 games on the opening weekend last season 6 sides went off odds on to win.
5 of those sides won.
A quick scan of the odds for this seasons opening games and you’ll see 6 sides look likely to head into their games as odds on favourite.
These sides include;
Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, Arsenal, Bournemouth and Watford.
Short price treble or 4-fold on the cards?
Only one odds off outsider won their opening game
Naturally most of us go in search of good value outsiders at big prices but the thing is value can be found at ANY price.
Just because something is odds on doesn’t make it bad value and vice versa.
Last season only Crystal Palace managed to nick a win that ‘they weren’t supposed to’.
Key takeaway is perhaps not to look too hard for value outsiders.
With that said, the way to go if you do want to find that outsider could be to focus on games where neither side were odds on favourite (that would have narrowed your chances to 1 in 4 last season).
SIX games ended with over 2.5 goals
If you’d have backed all 10 games over 2.5 goals you’d have ended +1.89 points up (at average odds).
Taking best prices available would have increased this figure to +2.41 points.
A closer look at which games were didn’t hit over 2.5 goals shows the following games;
Bournemouth 2 – 0 Cardiff
Fulham 0 – 2 Crystal Palace
Watford 2 – 0 Brighton
Arsenal 0 – 2 Man City
All games where there wasn’t a heavy favourite.
If you’re looking for under 2.5 goals perhaps look to games with no clear favourite.
This weekend that looks like it might include;
Burnley vs Southampton
Crystal Palace vs Everton
Leicester vs Wolverhampton
Man Utd vs Chelsea
There you have it.
Only thing left to say now is, good luck – hopefully you crush it this weekend and land a winner or two!