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An odd is simply a reflection of the probability that the bookmaker is giving a result of occuring. However, odds are ultimately subjective and they move.
In other words, it is not possible for the bookmakers prices to accurately reflect the most likely possibility of an outcome at all times. Hence value is created.
A value bet is where the actual probability of an occurrence is greater than the implied probability offered by the bookmaker.
Mathematical law tells us; outcomes converge towards the mean average over the long term. By consistently placing a large volume of value bets with a positive edge you are turning the underlying maths in your favour.
Edge is the mathematical advantage you obtain by beating the bookmaker odds. It is defined as the percentage by which the bookmaker odds are longer than the ‘real’ calculated odds.
Variance is a measure of how far your actual results vary from your expected average.
Different bookmakers offer different prices on outcomes. By selecting the bookmaker with the best odds, you are obtaining the biggest edge and in turn raising your expected value.
The Kelly Criterion can be used to determine optimal bet size. It is a popular staking method which suggests that stake should be proportional to the perceived edge.
It takes into consideration the perceived edge, bankroll, odds available to bet on and suggests the optimal stake.
Odds move more the closer it gets to the event starting. The closer you get to the start of an event (let’s say a football match) the more efficient the odds become as the maximum information enters the market.
We currently focus on 3 bet types:
1x2 = Home Win/Draw/Away Win
ah = Asian Handicap
Totals = Over/Under goals
There is no advised bankroll however if you contact one of the team we’re happy to share what we do - You should use a bankroll size you are comfortable with. Keep it sensible and obviously don’t bet more than you can afford to lose!